What is a cashflow forecast, and why is it important?

February 9, 2023

The Value of Cash Flow Forecasting

To keep their business afloat, all business owners must have a thorough understanding of their company's finances. Cash flow forecasting is a useful tool for any business to use in this regard.

Cash flow forecasts are projections of a company's future cash position based on estimates. A cash flow forecast will typically lay out the expected cash inflows and outflows for a given future period, providing an estimated projection of the business' predicted net cash flow for that period.

The Office of National Statistics declared cash flow issues cause 90% of business failures. Using a cash flow projection method can help businesses avoid and prepare for future cash flow issues.

The Benefits of Cash Flow Forecasting

Aside from gaining a detailed view of business transactions, cash flow forecasts have a wide range of advantages for eCommerce businesses.

Prepare for future cash shortages.

The objective of a cash flow forecast is to determine whether a company will have positive or negative cash flow in the future. Businesses can prepare for potential future cash flow gaps by reducing cash outflows for that month, using credit to pay suppliers, or setting aside surplus cash for these periods. This is an especially important advantage of cash flow forecasts for businesses that have significant seasonal sales fluctuations.

Keep track of your spending

Creating an estimation of the projected cash outgoings over a given period can also help you track and understand your regular business expenditures more closely. This enables you to identify areas where you may be overspending and where you can cut costs to improve cash flow.

Keep track of late-paying customers.

Cash flow forecasting can also provide an understanding into clients who consistently pay late and have an impact on your cash flow. By identifying these clients, you can establish more stringent credit terms in order to boost your cash flow and steer clear from periods of negative cash flow caused by late payments.

Run fictitious business scenarios.

Scaling and growing your business always involves some risk. Using cash flow projections, you can simulate the financial consequences of hypothetical business scenarios such as investing in new manufacturing equipment, offering next-day delivery, or comprehending the cash flow consequences of presenting a seasonal product line.

Encourage more informed business decisions.

As previously stated, simulating hypothetical scenarios with cash flow forecasts can aid in understanding the risk or reward of new activities. Furthermore, you will be able to make more informed decisions because you will have the financial information to either move forward with or decline certain business ventures. Assuring that your company does not invest in a decision that will jeopardise its cash flow in the long run.

Improved surplus cash management

Cash flow estimation can be used to identify negative cash flow periods as well as predict positive cash flow periods. Knowing when you will have surplus cash available will allow you to take advantage of this positive cash flow balance.

For example, you may see fluctuations in sales across seasons, and you are expected to see positive cash flow in the coming month as a result. However, using cash flow forecasting, you notice that next month will see a decrease in sales volume and a receeding cash flow. With this data, you can save your positive cash flow balance and carry it over into the following month to help cover expenses that cannot be accounted for solely through sales revenue. As a result, your company will be able to more easily navigate the upcoming negative cash flow period.

Furthermore, a sustained period of positive cash flow indicates that you have enough surplus cash to invest in new equipment or processes that will benefit your business in the long run.

The Drawbacks of Cash Flow Forecasting

There are some drawbacks to cash flow forecasting that all businesses should be mindful of before relying too heavily on these projections.

Estimates and probabilities are used to make forecasts.

Because cash flow forecasting is entirely based on projected estimates and probabilities, plans become less accurate as they are extended further into the future. To improve forecast accuracy, compare projections to existing bank statements for the same duration and adjust future forecasts to create a more accurate picture.

orecasting cash flows can create a false sense of security.

Cash flow projections are just that: projections. If a forecast predicts long periods of positive cash flow, business owners may be lulled into a false sense of security. Furthermore, it is critical to understand that cash flow is different from profit, and that extended durations of positive cash flow are not a guarantee of future business success.

Forecasts cannot be relied on solely.

Cash flow forecasts are not carried out to anticipate future market fluctuations, shifts in sales demand, inflation, or other factors beyond your business's control. As a result, a cash flow forecast should only be used for guidance and should not be relied on entirely.

Over reliance on cash flow forecasting can lead to tunnel vision in leaders.

Over-reliance on cash flow forecasts is not recommended, but if it occurs, there may be consequences other than negative cash flow. Business decision-makers may develop tunnel vision, ignoring external factors that may be harmful to other aspects of the business or even profitability. While cash flow forecasts are a great tool for making business decisions, there are many other factors to consider in order to keep your company running smoothly.

Methods of Cash Flow Forecasting

Cash flow forecasting is an important tool in and of itself, but using the right cash flow forecasting approach can make your projections even more useful for your firm. Some of the most popular cash flow forecasting methods are as follows:

The indirect method of cash forecasting

Net income is used to generate cash projections in the indirect method of cash flow forecasting. Net income figures are found on the profit and loss statement and are modified by removing all non-cash transactions to provide a quick cash flow prediction. Although this method is much faster than others, it produces a less accurate forecast of future cash flow.

Direct method of cash forecasting

The more common method of creating cash projections is direct cash flow forecasting. Direct method forecasts are created by having a cash flow statement that justifies all of the individual estimated cash transactions over the given period, and then subtracting projected cash outflows from projected cash inflows to yield the cash flow forecast.

Forecasting of products

Product forecasting is a more specific form of cash flow forecasting. Product forecasting forecasts the success of a new product by taking into account the brand's awareness or any marketing activities, the price, the product's niche, projected sales, and competitor alternatives. Product forecasting, by definition, provides a much narrower view of your overall cash situation, but it can be useful in conjunction with conventional cash flow forecasting approaches to understand the potential impact of a new product launch.

Forecasting in three dimensions

Three-way forecasting provides a comprehensive view of your company's projected financial position. Profit, balance sheets, and cash flow are all forecasted using this method. This method is especially useful if you need a broader view of your company's finances because many expenses, such as inflation, are not included in a cash flow statement and others, such as VAT movements, are not included in a profit and loss statement.

Whatever method of cash flow forecasting you use, there are some fundamental best practices that all business owners should follow.

-Compare old forecasts to actual bank statements to create more accurate future cash flow forecasts. Adjust future forecasts as needed based on the differences between your statements and forecasts.

-Consider some of the minor details that can have an impact on your cash flow projections. When do your clients usually pay you? Is this usually within your expected payment window, or do late payers cause cash flow issues?

-Revisit your forecasts on a regular basis throughout the period, updating them with any unexpected expenses to provide a more accurate picture of what your bank statement will look like at the end of the period.

-Keep in mind that cash flow does not equal profitability.


Cash flow forecasts, when used correctly, can be a very useful tool for eCommerce businesses. Understanding projected future cash flow can keep your business afloat in difficult times and even support long-term growth, regardless of which method of forecasting suits your business interests.

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